Honest math, not hype
Lottery Expected Value Calculator
See, honestly, what a ticket is actually worth on average — and whether a jackpot ever makes it a "good deal".
What is expected value?
Expected value (EV) is the average result you'd get per ticket if you played an enormous number of times. It sums each possible prize multiplied by its probability, then subtracts the ticket price.
EV = (Σ prize × probability) − ticket price
For lottery tickets, EV is usually strongly negative — that's how lotteries fund prizes and public spending. EV swings positive only for very large lump-sum jackpots when no one else wins; but that doesn't make it a good gamble.
The honest view
Why lottery tickets usually lose money on average
Most lottery games return only about 50–60% of ticket revenue to players. For Powerball, the odds of the jackpot are about 1 in 292 million — meaning you could spend more than half a billion dollars buying $2 tickets and still (on average) only expect to win the top prize once.
A ticket sometimes looks "positive EV" when the lump-sum jackpot is enormous and unshared. But even then, variance is staggering: millions of tickets lose completely. Expected value is a long-run tool, not a reason to gamble.
Learned something?
Expected Value FAQ
Can a lottery ticket ever have positive expected value?
Rarely, and only on paper. When a lump-sum jackpot exceeds about 292 million times the ticket price for Powerball (and no one else wins), the top-prize contribution can push EV above zero. The practical risks and variance remain extreme.
Is expected value how I should think about gambling?
EV is a useful lens, but it ignores how much you can afford to lose and the emotional cost. A small acceptable "budget" for fun is very different from an EV-justified wager. Never risk money you can't afford to lose.
Is playing the lottery a good investment?
No. On average, players lose. View any amount spent as entertainment you can afford to lose, never as an investment.